STUDENTS: Samuel Rooker, Brett Evans, Maxwell Voorhees, Ethan Jardines

ADVISOR: Dr. Jennifer Davis

SPONSOR: National Counter-Terrorism Center (NCTC)

The emerging technology acquisition and implementation methods utilized by both sides
of the Russo-Ukraine War are continually expanding into unforeseen contexts. Novel approaches throughout the conflict, once unthinkable due to technological barriers, illustrate how deeply integrated technology has become in modern warfare. Given the global flow of technology in a globalized economy, these methods are likely to influence how non-state actor terror groups conduct attacks.

This project, sponsored by the National Counter-Terrorism Center (NCTC), aims to evaluate the implementation of emerging technologies in the Russo-Ukraine War could shape how non-state international terror groups conduct attacks over the next five years. By considering four key implementation methods, this forecasting explores how issues such as funding, territorial control, and technological expertise may influence the successful adaptation of these approaches. This research analyzes how non-state terror actors may reshape their activities to achieve technological superiority.

Drawing on key analytical reasoning techniques, design language analysis and data analytics, this forecast explores how counter-terrorism efforts can better prepare for increasingly advanced technological threats. Through four sub-forecasts, each addressing a specific component of emerging technology implementation, the project presents a comprehensive outlook on how these dynamics may influence terrorist activity in the near future. As global conflicts continue to intersect with rapidly advancing technology, understanding these patterns is critical to anticipating the future of terrorism.

STUDENTS: Caroline Lancaster, Noah Modesitt, Jahnavi Muthyala, Andrew Rorex and David Smith

ADVISOR: Dr. Jennifer Davis

SPONSOR: National Counter-Terrorism Center (NCTC)

After the collapse of Bashar al-Assad's regime in late December 2024, Syria has experienced leadership change, armed militant conflicts, and widespread political instability. The Syrian Transitional Government, led by Ahmed al-Sharaa, the former leader of Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), is attempting to build a sustainable government structure amid ongoing security challenges and deep institutional fragmentation. Groups such as the Jewish Druze, the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), and other religious and ethnic minority factions pose significant cultural, political, and governance challenges to national cohesion and centralized authority. Terrorist organizations such as ISIS also further complicate stabilization efforts by exploiting security vacuums and weak state control.

This project aims to forecast the future political and security landscape of Syria as it navigates its post-Assad regime transitional phase. By analyzing the interactions among the HTS-led interim government, autonomous regional powers, and oppressed minority factions, the study seeks to map possible outcomes for Syria’s future using data-driven analytical techniques. This research is of importance to policymakers and international stakeholders, as it identifies key friction points that could lead to either state consolidation or further fragmentation. Understanding these dynamics is essential for developing strategies to mitigate sectarian violence, prevent the resurgence of transnational terrorism, and address the humanitarian needs of a population that has dealt with over a decade of conflict.

STUDENT: Sophia Faulkner, Mikayla Green, Madeline Gill and Natalie Beane

ADVISOR: Dr. Jennifer Davis

SPONSOR: National Counter-Terrorism Center (NCTC)

As artificial intelligence (AI) continues to transform the landscape of international security,
understanding how non-state actors may exploit these technologies has become a critical priority for U.S. national security. This project examines the likelihood and implications of AI adoption by Hezbollah, an Iran-backed militant group, with a demonstrated history of technological adaptation.

As AI tools become increasingly accessible and advanced, Hezbollah may be able to enhance its operational capabilities across multiple domains, including propaganda, cyber operations, intelligence analysis, and targeting. Recent activities, such as the use of manipulated media to influence audiences and the conduct of cyber operations, demonstrate that Hezbollah is leveraging emerging technologies enabled by generative AI. As these AI-enabled systems require less manual operation, Hezbollah may increase its efficiency while reducing the need for extensive training and personnel.

This raises significant concerns for U.S. counter-terrorism efforts, particularly for agencies such as the National Counter-Terrorism Center (NCTC), which must anticipate and assess these evolving threats. This research evaluates how Hezbollah could integrate AI into its operations over the next five years, focusing on key risk areas, including drone warfare, cyber capabilities, and information operations. It also highlights the need for enhanced intelligence frameworks, improved monitoring of AI adoption indicators, and stronger collaboration between government agencies and private technology companies.

STUDENTS: Haley Goldin, Vivian Upchurch, Caitlin Connelly and Courney Horvath

ADVISOR: Dr. Jennifer Davis

SPONSOR: National Counter-Terrorism Center (NCTC)

Foreign Terrorist Groups (FTGs) continue to inspire and coordinate attacks via the recruitment of Violent Religious Extremists (VREs). This remains an ongoing threat to U.S. national security. In response, this project examines how gaps in coordination between state and local intelligence agencies may enable extremist groups to expand recruitment and operate more effectively over the next five years. Persistent structural and operational weaknesses, such as unclear roles, lack of standardized procedures, and jurisdictional conflicts that limit information sharing, reduce oversight and create vulnerabilities that adversaries can exploit.

Through causal loop diagramming and divergent scenario analysis, the project identifies key dynamics driving these threats and forecasts how this issue may evolve over the next five years. Factors such as declining public trust and widespread social media use amplify the pool of ideologically susceptible individuals. Additionally, the rapid evolution of technology continues to reshape both extremist tactics and intelligence capabilities, enabling adversaries to exploit new digital tools faster than agencies can adapt.
Digital platforms provide extremists with unprecedented opportunities to recruit, radicalize, and mobilize individuals, often outpacing response efforts.

The findings emphasize the need for proactive strategies, including stronger inter-agency collaboration and standardized communication frameworks. Further research into the radicalization process, specifically the difference between individuals who support terrorist ideologies and those willing to conduct attacks, is also needed to improve the prevention of extremist activity. Addressing these gaps will help decision-makers to reduce extremist influence, strengthen intelligence capabilities, and support the development of a more robust, standardized counter-terrorism framework.

STUDENTS: Carson Bryant and Veronica Lopez-Ramiro

ADVISOR: Dr. Jennifer Davis

SPONSOR: ManTech

Advancements in biometric identification systems pose a direct threat to intelligence operations,
specifically human intelligence (HUMINT) clandestine movements and meetings. Hard-target countries, where HUMINT collection is most critical, are becoming pioneers in biometric adaptation and enforcement. This creates a fork in the road; either U.S. Intelligence must adapt or leave HUMINT operations behind.

This project applies both intelligence analysis methods and data collection and analysis to
explore the probability of four forecasts. We explored key topics such as biometric technology, HUMINT operations,officer-source relationships, political and social legislative pressure, and current intelligence adaptive measures.

Our research aims to predict the likelihood of major HUMINT pathways as they evolve in both hard- and soft-target countries. The findings could provide crucial insight for decision-makers seeking to better understand the operational landscape and outcomes related to biometrics and human intelligence.

STUDENTS: Janasia Brokenburr, Sawyer DeMay, Ava Lambo and Sara Jane Ryan

ADVISOR: Dr. Jennifer Davis

SPONSOR: Bent Ear Solutions

Rising political polarization, hate crime trends and social tensions in Los Angeles raise concerns about the vulnerability of the 2028 Summer Olympic Games to lone-wolf extremist attacks. As a highly visible international mega-event, the Games attract global attention and carry significant symbolic value, historically making them attractive targets for actors seeking to broadcast ideological messages. This project aims to assess the vulnerability of the 2028 Los Angeles Olympic Games to lone-wolf extremist attacks, providing strategic insights for Olympic planning leadership and federal stakeholders responsible for safeguarding the event.

Several key drivers influence this threat environment, including rising hate crimes against marginalized communities, geopolitical tensions involving the U.S. and the Middle East, and displacement policies affecting unhoused populations. Additionally, increased civil unrest connected to immigration enforcement contributes to a climate that could motivate ideologically driven individuals to carry out symbolic acts of violence. Together, these factors create a complex landscape where decentralized threats may seek to exploit the Games' international visibility.

The analysis integrates multiple analytic methods to evaluate potential vulnerabilities. Geographic Information Systems were used to identify areas where demographic pressures, crime patterns, and population density intersect with Olympic venues. Data visualization tools, including Tableau and ArcGIS Business Analyst, were used to analyze trends in hate crimes, demographic changes, and socioeconomic indicators across Los Angeles County. Causal loop diagrams were also used to illustrate relationships between social tensions and extremist motivations, supporting a structured assessment to inform proactive Olympic security planning.

STUDENTS: William Benson, Wilson Draper and Josh Mayer

ADVISOR: Dr. Jennifer Davis

SPONSOR: MITRE

This project aims to evaluate the strategic value of implementing new policies, cost-effective options, and the role of artificial intelligence in the development of unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) systems. These systems offer advantages through continuous data collection and rapid technological advancement, as demonstrated in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict. The financial benefits, combined with the potential to enhance existing military structures and doctrines, make them highly valuable to decision-makers across multiple fronts.

The research supports informed decision-making by examining how the United States can pursue strategic advantage through affordable counter-UAV (CUAV) systems while reducing human casualties in operations against emerging threats. Using real-time armed conflict data alongside analytical tools such as Tableau and Google Colab, the project identifies measurable insights to guide decisions on the effective use of unmanned aerial systems in combat.

This project also aims to utilize Futures Exploration and Causal Analysis, specifically Causal Loop Diagramming, to further analyze the current environment and deliver a comprehensive forecast of the future of military conflicts with UAV systems.

STUDENTS: Jacob Brann, Joe Fernandez, Brendan Fitzsimon, Mike Hillin and Garret Smith

ADVISOR: Dr. Stephen Marrin

SPONSOR: MITRE

Our capstone project seeks to answer the research question, “What is the likelihood that Russia and China will significantly increase the deployment of private military and security companies (PMCs/PSCs) in South America within the next three to five years?” To answer this question, we've done a comparative analysis of the Russian private military company model with the Chinese private security company model. The project defines Russian and Chinese PMC tactics, strategic goals and geographic areas of interest, including where those interests overlap with those of the United States.

Our research focuses on three South American countries identified as most likely to experience increased PMC presence: Brazil, Argentina and Peru. These countries were selected based on high levels of investment from Russia and China, local demand for private military and security capabilities, elevated levels of civil unrest, and the presence of vulnerable mining, energy and infrastructure sites.

Understanding Russian and Chinese PMC operations is essential for protecting U.S. interests in strategically important regions across South America. By identifying potential threats in advance, U.S. government decision-makers can adjust resource allocation, refine strategies, and safeguard critical footholds, helping to maintain long-term U.S. strategic interests in the region. The analysis incorporates graphical and visualization tools for maps and charts, as well as methodological processes such as scenario development, causal loop charting, and structured analytic techniques, including key assumption checks to develop our forecast.

STUDENTS: Elodie Decker, Ray Dobrican and Owen Johnson

ADVISOR: Dr. Stephen Marrin

SPONSOR: U.S. Department of the Treasury

In small island developing states such as Belize, even well-intentioned financial reforms can reshape economic growth, credit availability, and investor confidence in the formal financial sector. This project examines how recommendations from the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) – the international financial regulatory body – in Belize have affected the stability and performance of the formal financial sector. Using a data-driven approach, the analysis evaluates key variables including foreign investment, credit availability, and other indicators of economic health.

Our capstone is sponsored by the U.S. Department of the Treasury and is intended to inform senior decision-makers at the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on the potential unintended consequences of financial regulation in Belize. Our analysis evaluates trends from 1995–2024 to forecast the impacts of reforms following the 2011 and 2024 FATF Mutual Evaluations. To support this work, our team employed a combination of analytical and technical methods, including causal loop diagram modeling, triadic hypothesis development, ripple effect analysis, and multiple synthetic control models using data from the Central Bank of Belize, the World Bank, and the IMF, supported by tools within the Google ecosystem.

STUDENT: Andrew Avenia, Liam Haag, Nicolas Melendez and Mitchell Riggan

ADVISOR: Dr. Stephen Marrin

SPONSOR: MANTECH

Following Iranian military losses in 2025 and 2026, this project forecasts the likelihood that Iran will rearm within 1-2 years in terms of both conventional military capabilities and nuclear weapon development. Amid severe economic instability and infrastructure failures, the Iranian regime faces critical challenges – including international sanctions, the depletion of currency value, and damaged infrastructure – that threaten its stability and ability to rearm and maintain a strong military posture.

To conduct this analysis, we modeled Iran’s resources allocation using various analytic techniques to simulate and gain a better understanding of competing military and economic demands on the Iranian regime.

STUDENT: Abbie Gorman, Savannah Dorey and Lindsay Toothaker

ADVISOR: Dr. Stephen Marrin

SPONSOR: National Counterterrorism Center (NCTC)

The Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) is home to vast mineral resources, including cobalt and coltan, which are essential for renewable energy technology and military equipment. The March 23 Movement (M23) –a non-state violent extremist group formed to oppose the DRC’s government– occupies the North and South Kivu provinces, traffics minerals, and seeks control of significant mining sites.

As commercial drones become increasingly advanced and accessible to non-state actors for surveillance and attacks, the M23 could use them to supplement its mining operations, posing challenges to U.S. investment goals in the DRC. The project, sponsored by the National Counterterrorism Center, forecasts the likelihood that M23 will use drones to supplement their operations and examines the implications for U.S. interests.

To do this, our team used causal loop diagramming, divergent scenario development, change detection, and mine vulnerability evaluation, along with geospatial analysis, to develop our forecast of M23’s drone use targeting the DRC’s mining sector.

STUDENT: Katie Caldwell, Lindsey Reed, Henrietta Sayki and Takao Tamai

ADVISOR: Dr. Stephen Marrin

SPONSOR: MITRE

United States critical infrastructure systems, essential to society, are continually compromised by cyberattacks. This capstone project, sponsored by MITRE, explores the use of proxy cyber groups by the People’s Republic of China (PRC) to exploit vulnerabilities in supply chain-critical infrastructure systems.

This project forecasts the likelihood that the PRC will exploit existing vulnerabilities within the United States supply chain critical infrastructure.

To conduct this analysis, we use casual loop diagramming, ripple effect analysis, and a key assumptions check as analytical methods to identify critical patterns and interdependencies across supply chain critical infrastructure systems.