Environmental Scanning
Retreat Emerging Trends and Potential Events Summary.
October 27, 1995
Participants: James Madison University Planning Advisory Council
Summary: Dr. Frank J. Doherty, Director of Institutional Research
Conducted by: Dr. James Morrison, University of North Carolina
-- Chapel Hill
Introduction
The James Madison University Planning Advisory Council met for
the first time on October 27, 1995 to participate in an environmental
scanning workshop. Environmental scanning is seen as the first
step in James Madison University's planning process because it
is necessary to anticipate and understand the internal and external
trends and events so that plans can be developed to address these
trends and events. At James Madison University these trends and
events will be used as part of the information used to develop
the university's planning priorities.
The workshop was conducted by Dr. James Morrison, Professor of
Education at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill.
Dr. Morrison is a nationally respected authority on futuring and
environmental scanning. He is the author or co-author of over
90 publications focusing on the application of futures research
techniques in planning and policy analysis. He has served as a
planning consultant to many colleges and universities and the
United States Army.
The specific objectives of the workshop were to:
- identify trends that define the context within which James
Madison University will function in the next decade.
- derive implications and recommend actions vis-à-vis
the most critical trends.
- identify potential events that could effect the university.
- derive implications and recommend actions vis-à-vis
these potential events.
- review the next steps in the planning process.
After the initial introduction and orientation, the group viewed
and discussed the Joel Barker Video, Discovering the Future:
The Business of Paradigms. The members of the James Madison
University Planning Advisory Council were then divided into three
groups for the day. Below is a brief summary of the day's major
activities.
- Identifying, prioritizing, and defining implications of critical
trends.
According to the materials sent to JMU prior to the planning retreat,
"Trends are estimations/measurements of social, technological,
economic, environmental, and political characteristics over time.
They are gradual and long-term. Trend information may be used
to describe the future, identify emerging issues, and project
future events. . . Trends define the context within which organizations
function. "Each group used the
Nominal Group Process to identify and prioritize critical trends
which may affect James Madison University. A summary of these
trends and the implications of one are provided in this document.
- Identifying, prioritizing, defining signals of events, and
deriving implications of events.
According to the materials sent to JMU prior to the planning retreat,
"Events are unambiguous and confirmable. When they occur,
the future is different. Event identification and analysis is
critical in anticipatory planning."1 The group again used
the Nominal Group Process to identify, prioritize, define signals
of events, and derive implications of events. A summary of these
events and the implications of one are provided in this document.
- Strategic Planning Overview.
Dr. Morrison gave a brief overview of how environmental
scanning fits into a planning process and described how James
Madison University might develop an on-going environmental scanning
process.
The following pages contain each group's trend and event statements.
The reader is urged to review these trends and events to understand
better the environment in which the university must operate.
The next step in the environmental scanning process at James Madison
University will be to review further the trends and events identified
in the workshop. Soon a follow-up survey will be sent to all members
of the Planning Advisory Council. Each member will be asked to
estimate the impact of the trends and events identified in the
workshop. This will enable the Office of Institutional Research
to collect information about the most critical trends and events
and supply this information to members of the Planning Advisory
Council.
The summaries of each group follows.
- Republicans control State legislature
- Democrats continue in control
- Economic downturn for the US
- Technology downturn for the US
- Hunter Andrews loses
- Reduced state funding for higher education
- Privatization of higher education/k-12
- Cessation of certain populations in the US
- DC Statehood becomes a reality
- Increased competition for money
- No capital outlay dollars for JMU
- Allocation of dollars to other sources
- Potential merger of JMU w/ another university
- Elimination of tenure throughout the country
- Spread of contagious disease makes contact risky
- Mandated definition of what constitutes "accountability"
for institutions of higher education.
- More industry location announcements in VA are made
- Dr. Carrier leaves JMU
- Military occupation of the US
- Laws require education up through college
- Recognition of the fact that there are too many college graduates.
- Imposed caps on out-of state enrollment
- Major corporations exchange dollars for control of various
programs
- Act of significant violence occurs on JMU campus
- Enrollment declines at JMU
- Private support for JMU drastically increases
- Republicans control state legislature
- Caps imposed on out-of-state enrollment
- Dr. Carrier absent (internal)
- Definition of "accountability" is mandated
- Hunter Andrews is defeated
- Recognition that there are too many college grads in society
- Act of significant violence occurs at JMU (internal)
Republican Control Of State Legislature:
- Increased mobilization of religious right
- Last national election
- Recent polls
- The fact that the GOP is close now
- Republican governor
- New leader of the General Assembly
- New relationships must be developed
- Heightened requirement for accountability likely
- Uncertainty regarding funding on all fronts
- Elimination of tenure more likely
- Possible four-year tuition contract
- Do not be seen to be taking sides politically
- Play up positive efficiency ratings
- Work on developing new relationships
Imposed Caps On Out-Of-State Students:
- Results in other states
- Possible campaign issue during election year
- Editorials in papers, particularly in nova
- Decline in SAT average
- Revenue decline
- Decline in student diversity
- Possible loss of regional stature
- Detrimental effect on particular programs (study abroad, etc.)
- Work with other state institutions with significant out-of-state
populations in order to see that it does not come about (William
& Mary and UVA)
- Inform the state that they would have make up revenue shortfall
(from having fewer higher paying out-of-state students) from the
General Fund - that is, argue cost to the State of such an action
- Recruit top-end SAT students from the State
- Increased impact of technology on higher education (4)
- Increasing diversity/alternatives to provision of "education"
and nature of the "student" body (4)
- Multifaceted assault on traditional character/definition of
an institution of higher education (4)
- Increasing appetite for technology (4)
- Skyrocketing educational costs plus less access to financial
support
- Multifaceted assault on traditional character/definition of
an institution of higher education.
- Physical campus would change -not need classrooms/campus to
which students would come.
- Redirection of faculty time away from direct student contact
to "defense"
- Expectations that higher education employees adapt with new
skills, new roles, new responsibilities
- Changes student expectations-toward receiving credentials
rather than "an education"; rather than the meaning
of "an education".
- Allows individualization of college education/curriculum for
the student
- Our competitors become business/industry, other "independent
vendors", not just other institutions of higher education
- Alter the way we design and deliver the curriculum
- Alter the way we recruit students
- Take the path of least resistance-if assault, do we not respond
by thoughtful analysis
- Communicate the value of education to general audiences
- Reaffirm mission of institution (internal)
- Solicit input from external audiences as to perceived expectations
and critically analyze them
- Better explain what we are about (higher education) to our
students
- Analyze alternative curriculum design and delivery systems
and modify our structures/approaches as appropriate
- Unify administration and faculty supporting common goal
- Avoid taking path of least resistance
- Faculty be very active in new curriculum, instructional trends
- University support of professional development. learning new
techniques/technology of faculty and staff
- Mutual recognition that pursuing opportunities of new approaches
will require analysis of present responsibilities/tasks (perhaps
reducing, reprioritizing).
- External audiences recognize potential benefits of new approaches
and costs of pursuing these (faculty development, operating budget,
equipment, etc.)
- Republicans gain control of Virginia legislature. (3)
- US economy collapses under weight of budget deficit and trade
deficit. Depression similar to 1930's. (2)
- President Carrier suddenly resigns. (5)
- All auxiliary services outsourcing required by General Assembly.
(1)
- Early retirement age enacted at 55 years or 30 years of service.
- Passage of a flat tax.
- Democratic governor elected. (2)
- New cold war develops with China.
- Major nuclear accident at Louisa
- State develops a permanent moratorium on new physical plant
construction. (1)
- University eliminates medical coverage.
- Elimination of federal student aid programs. (4)
- Tenure abolished at state universities.(4)
- Existence of highly intelligent alien life is confirmed.
- Republican President and congress elected in 1996.
- Affirmative action is abolished by federal law. (2)
- Tightening of immigration status requirements for faculty
and students.
- University of Virginia goes private.
- Equipment trust fund is eliminated.
- Kudzu destroy all vegetation east of the Mississippi.
- Terrorists destroy major JMU building. (1)
- A megavirus destroys all computer systems in US (2)
- Mexico is thrown into revolution and anarchy.
- Spanish becomes the second official language of the US
- Stress becomes a "terminal" disease.
- AIDS virus becomes easily communicable. (2)
- AIDS vaccine found.
- JMU has a national football championship or goes Division
1A.
- Another major energy crisis occurs.
- Balanced budget amendment approved.
- President Carrier suddenly resigns. (5)
- Elimination of federal student aid programs. (4)
- Tenure abolished at state universities.(4)
- Republicans gain control of Virginia legislature. (3)
- Affirmative action is abolished by federal law. (2)
- AIDS virus becomes easily communicable. (2)
- Economy collapses under weight of budget deficit and trade
deficit. Depression similar to 1930's. (2)
Tenure Abolished At State Universities.(4)
- Public criticism of faculty work habits.
- SCHEV initiates post-tenure review.
- Superintendent of public instruction calling for abolition
of tenure in public schools.
- Abolition of tenure at other institutions and other states.
- Willingness to ignore AAUP.
- Strong buyers market for faculty.
- Abolition of tenure in VCCS didn't cause difficulties.
Affirmative Action Is Abolished. (2)
- Public and student criticism of affirmative action.
- Reverse discrimination suits.
- UC rejection of AA policies.
- Pentagon's reversal of AA policy.
- Lessening of enforcement efforts by federal government.
- Minorities return to traditionally black institutions.
Tenure Abolished At State Universities.(4)
- No new tenure track faculty will be hired.
- Higher salaries may be required as risk premium.
- Motivation problems.
- Alternative contractual system.
- Academic freedom needs to be protected.
- Threat to current tenured faculty.
- Faculty will not bound to activities strictly devoted to tenure.
- New evaluation system possible.
- Increased incidents of suits.
- Flexibility to reallocate resources as contracts expire.
- Reduce the applicant pool in Virginia.
- Reduce elitist image that public has toward public education.
- Grandfather those who have it.
- Develop increasing time contracts (1yr, 2yr, 3yr, . . .) for
faculty.
- Develop rules and procedures to protect academic freedom.
- Guarantee due process rules and procedures.
- Live with a 2-class system.
- Develop evaluation for faculty who apply for promotion independently
of tenure.
- Money needed for new hires and faculty recruiting.
- Find incentives outside of tenure: merit; promotions; leaves;
travel; support.
- Continually evaluate institutional and program needs vis-à-vis
faculty and reallocate positions as necessary..
- Use of the World Wide Web increases explosively. Production
and availability (4)
- Increasing public pressure for greater productivity, reduced
costs, and accountability (4)
- Erosion of discipline-based instruction and learning (3)
- Continued competition from alternative education models.(5)
- Declining respect for higher education as an institution (3)
- Continued competition from alternative education models.
- JMU will not be able to meet its aggressive enrollment targets.
- Go public in terms of accountability in what we teach our
students. Have to do a better job selling "product."
Marketing takes a higher priority.
- Alter the way we "do" education.
- Time needed to "retool" our faculty.
- Increased cost pressures.
- CISAT funding will disappear.
- Integrate and standardize our commitment to technology.
- Form alliances with extra academy-entities.
- Difficulty in assessing effectiveness of alternative education
models.
- End of admissions standards as we know them.
- Increased difficulties in reporting to state and federal governments.
- Development of an effective and efficient curriculum revision
process.
- Catalog the competition. Find out what they are doing.
- Need to be more sensitive to the needs of the consumer.
- Determine who is the consumer.
- Evaluate our product line in relation to consumer needs.
- Outsourcing and joint ventures.
- Aggressively train staff in technology.
- Recruit staff who are technologically literate in their field.
- Evaluate staff partially on the basis of their technological
sophistication in their area.
- Benchmark quality and productivity.
- Explore modification of discipline-based instruction.
- Redevelop our outcome measures as a result of alternative
models.
- Aggressively use the WWW as an instructional medium.
- Develop cooperative programs with other state institutions.
- Explore a "virtual" university.
- Life on another planet
- A serious environmental incident
- Congress passes tax and social program changes that exacerbates
social class differences
- World oil supply exhausted
- One political party gains control
- President Carrier retires
- Lifespan expectation rises by 25 years
- SCHEV is abolished higher education is deregulated
- Tenure is abolished by General Assembly
- Electronic economy replaces script and coin
- Cancer cure
- Political change in the direction of a return to a cold war
- Abolish financial aid to college students
- National debt causes collapse of economy
- Rise of 3rd political party
- War breaks out in the Middle East over water
- New source of cheap energy
- Supreme court declares all anti-discrimination laws to be unconstitutional
- US health care insurance system collapses
- Currently illegal drugs declared legal
- World peace breaks out
- Terrorists groups acquire nuclear weapon
- President Carrier retires
- Tenure is abolished by General Assembly
- Supreme court declares all anti-discrimination laws to be unconstitutional
- Abolish financial aid to college students
President Carrier Retires
- 25th year of service
- His age is around typical retirement
- He is recruited to run for political office
- Completion of phase one of CISAT
- Vote of "no confidence" and other recent stresses
on the position
Tenure Is Abolished By General Assembly
- State Board of education recommended eliminated tenure in
K-12
- CISAT moving to non-tenure appointments of faculty
- Tenure is under close scrutiny by general assembly and others
- Elimination of tenure in Community College system by SCHEV
- Bills introduced to general assembly with language to abolish
tenure
- SCHEV mandate that restructuring plans contain reference to
past tenure review mechanisms
Abolish Financial Aid To College Students
- Yesterday congress voted budget bill to reduce student loan
program
- General concern for size of national debt
- Continuing trend of reduced availability of federal financial
assistance to students
- General de-federalizing of many government functions and shift
to state responsibility
Tenure Is Abolished By General Assembly
- Develop a new system for faculty employment contract
- Faculty position loses appeal to people holding doctorates--increased
recruitment problems
- Significant faculty retirements
- Significant faculty resignations
- Reduced commitment by faculty to JMU
- Faculty reallocate time and efforts to becoming more marketable
in and out of academe
- Redefinition of the role of the faculty toward emphasizing
the pragmatic (practical) uses of the discipline and a loss of
idealism of the "profession"
- Demoralization of faculty
- Loss of protection of academic freedom
- Enhanced performance of some faculty who became complacent
with award of tenure
- Develop a new system of employment that restores (some of)
the lost job security
- Raise the salaries to a level commensurate with those outside
academe
- Encourage early retirements
- Enhance nonwage benefits of employment (e.g., grants, faculty
leaves)
- Involve faculty in developing new systems that guarantee the
continuation of academic freedom
- Threat of isolation caused by technology (reduced interaction)
- Possible antibiotics failure
- Accountability movement in higher education
- Conservative trend in American politics
- Immigrants comprising most of us a population growth
- Threat of isolation caused by technology (reduced interaction)
- Our relationship with K-12 education as an institution
- Program development to assist with human interaction skills
- What is the appropriate (independent) use of the technology,
and when do we begin to see the negative effects of reduced human
interaction ("Classroom of the 21st Century").
- Where does the idea of community service come into play?
- What is that balance that we hope to strike between the effective
use of technology and the development of well-rounded, socially
prepared students?
- Examine the cognitive results of increased levels of technological
instruction both at JMU and throughout the nation
- Maintain, support, and, where needed, establish, mechanisms
designed to facilitate human contact at JMU
- Make clear to the faculty that student interaction is an important
and expected aspect of employment at JMU
- Require certain sorts of courses and experiences that both
prepare one for life in society and for life with the new technology
- Develop curricula that facilitate the acquisition of communication
skills; an understanding of, and respect for different cultures;
negotiation and problem solving skills; and the consideration
of non-traditional approaches to doing so
- Provide increased opportunities for faculty development
- Study and disseminate issues related to the impact of technology
on society
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