The Trick of Perception

By George Vergara

This article is an update to Sara Leming’s interview with Dr. Caterina Paolucci following the Italian Elections in March of 2018.

For nearly three months following the Italian elections on March 4, 2018, the country was without a government. There was no prime minister, no cabinet, and Italy was in political turmoil. No political party won a straightforward majority, but the anti-establishment Five Star Movement (Movimento Cinque Stelle, M5S) won the most votes and the anti-immigration Northern League (Lega Nord, Lega) received the second most. The only possibility for either of these parties to establish a government was to form a coalition, but not necessarily with each other. Given that the M5S is an anti-establishment party, forming a coalition with any other party has never been in their best interest.

However, after months of mounting pressure from President Sergio Mattarella, the party conceded and finally agreed to form a coalition with Lega Nord. Despite the formation of this coalition, the struggle to form a government continued. Both party leaders, Matteo Salvini (Lega) and Luigi Di Maio (M5S), wanted to serve as prime minister and refused to concede to the other. Following another clash with Mattarella, Di Maio and Salvini both agreed to serve as deputy prime ministers. They appointed Giuseppe Conte, an unknown law professor at the University of Florence and LUISS in Rome, as a neutral alternative between both parties to serve as prime minister. However, his title isn’t reflective of his actual power in the Italian government both in Italy and on the international stage. In fact, Salvini and Di Maio are the two who are truly making the political decisions, while Conte is more or less their political mouthpiece.

As the shockwaves of the recent European migration crisis continue to rattle Italy, Italians have become increasingly vocal on the matter. Salvini and his party leaders have built their political discourse primarily on the topic of immigration. His anti-immigration speeches to the public have made Italians feel that it is no longer politically incorrect to negatively express their feelings about the topic in the public sphere. When I asked EUPS director, Dr. Caterina Paolucci, about this, she pointed out that Italians are talking about migration even during casual bar talk. “People you have chats with while sipping coffee at the bar - those famous Italian bar conversations, which give you the pulse of the nation - depict an imminent, dramatic threat due to an unbearable invasion of migrants. There is widespread fear of a supposed threat to Italian culture, people hanging out in the streets and selling or begging, or in the worst case committing petty and more serious crimes.” This “pulse of the nation” is echoed in the polls, as Salvini’s popularity among Italians has risen nearly thirty percent in recent months. As the M5S has lost some support, Salvini has established himself as the true leader of the current coalition.

In politics, especially Italian politics, perception is ultimately always more important than truth. In Italy, the perceived number of immigrants present compared to the actual number is disturbingly high. There have been reports that, when asked what percentage of the Italian population they believe is foreign, the average Italian has responded with a number that lies between 30-40%. According to the European Commission, however, this is hardly the case. In 2016, for every 1000 Italians, 5 were immigrants. Italy ranks 23rd out of the EU-28 on this scale, one of the lowest in this ever-growing European paradox that perceives a significantly higher number of immigrants than those actually present. For Salvini and Di Maio though, it appears that perception is all they need to succeed.

The actions and rhetoric of the populist Lega-M5S coalition isn’t the only political problem Italy still faces. There is little legitimate opposition facing the coalition and it does not seem that there will be any in the near future. The left is still in ruins following Matteo Renzi’s 2016 failed referendum and appears to be facing an internal divide. In fact, Renzi still holds a significant amount of control of the Democratic Party (Partito Democratico-PD) and has prevented the PD from finding new party leadership.

For now, Italy’s near political future is uncertain. As the 2019 European Parliamentary elections approach, it will be interesting to see which direction the Italians sway. Will the PD have new leadership and make a comeback, or will the majority of Italian elected MEPs be far right populists only further undermining EU power? Will Conte still be the prime minister by the end of next year, or will he follow the trend of most other Italian prime ministers and be ousted within two or three years of taking office?

In addition to their anti-immigrant rhetoric, Salvini and Di Maio have recently been two of the EU’s biggest critics. Following a recent discrepancy with the European Commission, their euroscepticism (anti-EU attitude) only grew. Last month, Italy submitted its 2019 draft budget plan to the Commission. Given that the plan calls for a sharp increase of public spending and infringes upon EU rules, the Commission rejected it. It was the first time that the Commission has ever rejected a member state’s draft budget proposal. However, Salvini and Di Maio aren’t backing down easily and have refused to amend the proposal. They have even hinted at the possibility of Italy leaving the eurozone or the EU all together. While ‘Ita-leave’ sounds unlikely, their threats are enough to rattle an already on-edge EU community. Like others around Europe, Italy’s populists have used the EU as a scapegoat for their country’s fiscal and social problems. Centrist parties around Europe have been scrambling to find a strategy to prevent any further spread of the populist wave. For now though, in Italy at least, the pulse of the nation is beating in a way that the EU should find disturbing. It just goes to show what the trick of perception is capable of.