NELSON INSTITUTE DIRECTOR’S COLUMN ANALYZES VIOLENCE LEADING TO OPPOSITION PULLOUT OF ZIMBABWE ELECTION

June 24, 2008

HARRISONBURG—In his weekly “Strategic Interests” column for the World Defense Review—anticipated this week because of breaking news developments—Dr. J. Peter Pham, Director of the Nelson Institute for International and Public Affairs at James Madison University, analyzes the campaign of violence leading to Sunday’s decision by Morgan Tsvangirai, leader of the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC), to pull out of the Zimbabwean presidential runoff scheduled for this Friday against incumbent Robert Mugabe of the Zimbabwe Africa National Union-Patriotic Front (ZANU-PF).

After reviewing the violence unleashed by the regime—perversely dubbed Operation “Makavhoterapapi? ” (“Where did you put your vote?”)—against its political opponents after they won the parliamentary elections as well as humiliated Mugabe, who has been in office for twenty-eight years, with a second place finish in the first round of voting on March 29, the essay turns to details of the campaign of intimidation directed against civil society actors, including purely humanitarian groups involved in food distribution and HIV/AIDS treatment. Dr. Pham also examines the regime’s attempts to subvert the Anglican Church in Zimbabwe and its persecution of members of the faithful loyal to the canonical bishops of the Church of the Province of Central Africa, actions which, as he notes, “ highlight the totalitarian trajectory of [Mugabe’s] rule.”

Noting Tsvangirai’s acknowledgment that “the courageous people of Zimbabwe and the people of the MDC have done everything humanly and democratically possible to deliver a new Zimbabwe under a new government,” Dr. Pham suggests one possible path forward for the United States and other members of the international community:

T he international community will have to decide where it comes down. Will other states recognize Mugabe as Zimbabwe’s lawful head of state as he swears himself in for another term? There is a powerful case to be made, not only for legal non-recognition, but for total diplomatic isolation of the regime, including the expulsion of Zimbabwean diplomats representing the ZANU-PF dictatorship from the international organizations and foreign capitals where they are accredited. Restrictions could also be extended to family members and dependents of those connected officially with the Mugabe regime. The United States, for example, could take the lead by sending all sixteen diplomats—from Ambassador Machivenyika Mapuranga down to Third Secretary for Political and Administrative Affairs Loreta Evelyn Mutyora—whose names appear in the most recent edition of the State Department’s Diplomatic List as official representatives of the Republic of Zimbabwe, along with the members of their households, packing back to “Uncle Bob” in Harare. The message would be clear: while America welcomes communication with legitimate governments, even ones with which we have political differences, given its blatant violation of the norms of its own constitutional and legal order, Mugabe’s regime can no longer be considered the legitimate government of Zimbabwe and thus has no right to avail itself of diplomatic prerogatives which the international community accords to its lawfully sovereign members.

Economic pressure would reinforce the political boycott: Mugabe will find it even more difficult to purchase the continuing loyalty of the increasing number of ZANU-PF cadres who would be forced back into Zimbabwe after being declared persona non gratae, given the near total collapse of the country’s economy (the official annual inflation rate was soaring above 165,000 percent in earlier this year before the country’s chief statistician stopped calculating it since there were no longer enough goods in shops for him to use in his determinations; analysts estimate the figure to have subsequently soared to around 1.8 million percent). The economic screws could also be turned further by impounding all assets abroad belonging to either the Zimbabwean regime or its leaders and their families and holding them for future disposition by a legitimate government in Harare. In short, visit upon Mugabe’s loyalists and their families some of the privations which they have already imposed on millions of other Zimbabweans, confident that a hitherto cosseted regime crony is unlikely to be as resilient in the face of adversity as a longsuffering ordinary Zimbabwean. The combined political and economic forces will make it impossible for Mugabe and his thugs to return to the status ante quo before the Zimbabwean people overwhelmingly turned on them at the polls.

The essay concludes: “The Zimbabwean people have made there choice and Mugabe has made his. The only question remaining is how the world’s democracies will respond to not only to the despot’s ongoing challenge to regional security concerns and international rights standards, but to his open defiance of the basic norms of human decency and civilized society.”

To read the full text of the article, “ Zimbabwe’s Runoff Rip-off,” click here.